ASML says AI chip demand will outrun its supply to 2028

ASML published its third-quarter results on October 14 (press release). Sales were €11.7 billion, gross margin 57.5% and net income €5.0 billion. It guided to €14.2–15.2 billion for the fourth quarter and €44–45 billion for full-year 2026.

The quarter isn't the story

CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers keep raising their short- and medium-term equipment forecasts, "driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments." Some are now expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030.

As a result, ASML expects its supply as currently planned to fall short of demand in both 2027 and 2028. It had already announced a 30% capacity increase for 2027 and was investigating another 30% for 2028; it is now looking at ways to go beyond that for 2028.

Why it matters: the bottleneck moves upstream

AI debates usually focus on GPUs and power. ASML's message points one layer down: the machines that make the chips will be a constraint. Part of 2027–28's compute supply is effectively being decided now.

Two things are worth separating. Sales and guidance are audited public disclosures. The 2029–30 "interest" is the CEO's characterisation, not signed orders; the release itself says customers are "expressing an interest."

Markets weren't uniformly thrilled either: per CNBC, sales came in slightly below analyst expectations while net profit beat them (CNBC). Reuters quoted Fouquet saying discussions with customers are now shifting "beyond 2027" (Reuters).

What it means for buyers

If you are planning GPU capacity for the next two to three years, don't count on hardware prices falling fast. For longer cloud or hardware contracts, securing capacity may matter more than price.